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EP election predictions: Voters focus on political stability

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Translation by:

Mana Livardjani

European Federalists

Written by Marco Hardt, spokesman of Europa-Union Deutschland Translated by Julia Brink

Berlin (ots) – Despite the economic crisis, Europeans focus on political stability. If European Elections took place today, voters would largely confirm the balance of power in the European Parliament. This is the result of the European Election Forecast Predict09.

eu presented jointly by the non-partisan Europa-Union Deutschland and Burson-Marsteller in Berlin.

According to this prediction, the conservative Christian-democrat EPP-ED will remain the biggest fraction – despite the possible diverging of the British conservatives and the Czech ODS. The social-democrat PES fraction will manage to slightly enlarge their relative power in the Parliament. Altogether the center-left-parties will catch up with the center-right-parties. Extreme right and left wing parties will not play a major role in the new Parliament. forecasts a remarkable result for Germany: The SPD will improve considerably by 7,2% to 28,7%. While the CDU will degrade by 8,8% to 27,7%, the CSU will manage to overcome the 5% barrier despite great losses with 6,8% (-1,2%). The liberal FDP (+7,3% auf 13,4%) and Die Linke (+4,3% to 10,4%) will be the greatest winners of the elections, while the Greens (-2,2% auf 9,7%) will probably have to face a slight decline. is a novel method of forecasting. For the first time, it will be possible to issue prospects before the European Elections. is an instrument created by the London School of Economics and the Trinity College Dublin on behalf of Burson-Marsteller. is based on an evaluation of all European Elections held so far. In the framework of the analysis, the factors best suitable for explaining the outcome of the elections were determined. The results of each party according to national surveys were “corrected” according to these factors. This way of forecasting yields much more precise results than a simple addition of national surveys.

Regularly, is supplied with new national forecasts and the possible results for the composition of the seats in the European Parliament are shown.

The prospects for the European Parliament:

Information on all German candidates running for a seat in the European Parliament on 7 June is available at the European Elections Portal of the Europa-Union Germany at

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Translated from Europawahl-Prognose: Die Wähler setzen auf politische Konstanz